The following is in response to an email request from one of my readers. I am sure many of you have already seen this video. This widely-held belief often reflects a fear that Europe will cease to exist, that a country’s native people will eventually be outnumbered by Muslims due to high fertility rates. This correlates with the Kalergi plan conspiracy.
These kind of hoaxes are spread by those who only have an interest in reading news that conforms to their point of view. No matter the actual facts, people will believe what they want to, and truth is irrelevant. The aim is to instill an irrational fear of Muslims. As I already explained in my three-part series on the migrant crime wave (part one, two, and three), it is a combination of manipulation of statistics, and misuse of the term ‘migrant’.
Since I live in France, let me explain the following video using French statistics, which completely contradicts the facts given by the author.
It is said in the video that “You are about to witness a report on the world’s changing demographics”, and a lot of other scare phrases. But is Europe’s population growth really due to Islamic immigration? This video relies on erroneous assumptions since the figures which it is based on, are false.
Let’s look at France, ten years after the release of this video. The term ‘migrant’ and ‘immigrant’ should not be confused, as a migrant in statistics includes all migrants, whether French nationals returning from living abroad after a long period of time, to other members of the European Union, and all other migrants of any nationality outside the European Union, not just Muslim.
Here is a detailed table (in French) of the European figures for the year 2014:
It contains the values found on the table by Debout La France.
Of the 340,000 entries on the French territory in 2014, 126,000 of them were nationals returning to France (a large third of the total). And of the 214,000 non-nationals, 83,000 are citizens of other EU countries. The calculation is the same for all countries. To suggest that it is due to a flood of refugees arriving in Europe, is completely misleading.
In the key figures of Europe (in French), we read about the table in question, this warning is given:
“In total, 3.8 million people immigrated to one of the EU-28 Member States in 2014. These total figures do not represent migration flows to the EU taken as a whole, since they also include movements between the different Member States of the Union. It is estimated that in 2014, 1.9 million third-country nationals immigrated to the EU. In addition, 1.8 million people residing in one Member State migrated to another Member State.”
What about the United Kingdom?
The Breibart website stated that in 2018, 600,000 migrants entered the United Kingdom in a single year:
The article refers to a publication by ONS, the UK statistical office, which reported 602,000 entries into the territory in 2018 as “long-term immigration”. A fairly stable total since 2008, which value oscillates each year between 500,000 and 650,000 entries.
Talking about migrants the way Breibart did, is misleading. This term does not correspond to any statistical category. What the ONS counts here is the legal entries in the territory of people wishing to stay 12 months or more, whatever the motives and nationality of the immigrants. Of the 602,000 people Breibart calls “migrants”, there are 77,000 Britons who have returned home after long periods abroad. There are also 201,000 citizens of the European Union, and 324,000 people outside Europe. One-third are work-related (216,000), and about the same number are students (211,000).
The statistics also provided information on departures. In 2018, 125,000 Britons left the territory, as well as 92,000 non-European immigrants, and 127,000 EU citizens (which is strongly increasing due to Brexit). In total, net migration (arrivals minus departures) is positive in 2018 (+258,000).
What about Muslim fertility rates?
Due to the long history of immigration to France (relative to other European countries), France is distinguished by a high proportion of immigrants’ descendants. The information on the origin of the parents is not given in the census. On the other hand, the question of the parents’ origin has been asked since 2005, as part of the employment survey.
The annual publication of INSEE, is based on this source. For three years there have been figures on immigrants, but also descendants of immigrants. The 2017 edition makes it possible to measure the number of descendants of immigrants by country of origin of the immigrant parent/s over the course of five years:
There is no official data on the issue, but according to a study conducted by Ifop for the Institut Montaigne, Muslims are between three and four million in France (remember that France had a population of 67 million on 1 st January 2017, according to INSEE). It is a young population, because 10% of Muslims are under 25 in France, but 5.6% of those over 15 years. Islam is the second religion of France:
Source: “French Islam is possible”, Institut Montaigne, September 2016.
Do French Muslims have 8.1 children per family? The French government does not collect statistics by religion, so it is impossible to say what the precise fertility rates among different religious groups in France are, but the total fertility rate for women not related to migration is 1.85. With 1.88 children per woman in 2017, France has the highest fertility in the European Union, the Europe wide average being 1.59.
The fertility rate of the children of immigrants is not the same as that of the immigrants themselves. The fertility of the descendants of immigrants is close to that of the majority population, the Directorate General of Foreigners in France based on the family and housing survey of 2011.
The fertility rate of the descendants of immigrants from the Maghreb falls to 2.06, and that of the average of the descendants of immigrants is 1.9. A rate that is therefore substantially similar to that of women with no connection to migration.
This confirms the “trajectories and origins” (TeO) survey conducted by the National Institute of Demographic Studies (INED) and INSEE in 2008, which compares the number of children at 40 years of the descendants of immigrants with the people from the majority population.
“There is no difference in second generation children compared to other women, which totally discredits this projection over forty years,” summarised by the researcher at Ined, Patrick Simon:
“The descendants of immigrants have in fact adopted the fertile behavior of the majority population,” concludes the TeO survey. In detail, the descendants of immigrants have fertility behaviors that divide into three situations:
“One part conforms to the norm of the family with two children, while others have no children, mainly because of their economic precariousness, and that a third set has three or more children, which brings them closer to the family model of their parents without moving away from the dominant model in France because very large families are very rare in their case.”
These estimates of fertility contradict the calculations claimed in the Muslim demographic video, and confirm that the descendants of immigrants have a fertility close to the population unrelated to migration.
The demographer explained: “I have estimated in my book on assimilation, from the TeO survey, the fertility at age 40 of Muslim women born in 1958-68 is 2.8 children, compared to 1.9 among Catholics, and 1.7 among women without religion (1.9 whole of France).
The fertility is higher among Muslim immigrant women (2.3 to 35 years) than among immigrant girls (1.9 to 35 years), among Muslim women who attach great importance to religion (2.5 to 35 years) than among those who give little or no importance (2.1 to 35 years).”
It therefore makes no sense to consider (as the video does) that the fertility index of all Muslim women is 3.4%, since not all are immigrants. And it is even more false to consider that this fertility index will be the same for their children, who will all be, by definition, the second (or even the third) generation since they will, according to the available demographic data, have fertility indices close to the non-migration-related population.
It also makes no sense to speak of a person of “Muslim origin”, since the descendants of immigrants are less religious than their parents. While 81 to 90% of immigrants from Algeria, Turkey, Morocco, Tunisia and Sub-Sahara Africa are Muslim, this rate falls to 60-70% for their descendants.
The Montaigne Institute’s investigation noted that the sample of his survey included 15% of people of the Islamic religion: at least one of the ascendants is Muslim, but does not consider himself a Muslim.
You can also read the following publications (in English) by INED: Two children per woman in France in 2006: are immigrants to blame?, Why is French life expectancy increasing more slowly (2019)?, and French fertility is the highest in Europe. Because of its immigrants (2019)?
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